Na Eprel 29, 2025, nkezi ọnụahịa A00 aluminom na ahịa ntụpọ Yangtze River ka akọọrọ na yuan/ton 20020, yana mmụba kwa ụbọchị nke yuan 70; Isi nkwekọrịta nke Shanghai Aluminom, 2506, mechiri na 19930 yuan / ton. Ọ bụ ezie na ọ gbanwere ntakịrị na nnọkọ abalị, ọ ka nwere ọkwa nkwado isi nke 19900 yuan n'ụbọchị. N'azụ omume a na-arị elu bụ mweghachi dị n'etiti ngwa ahịa doro anya zuru ụwa ọnụ na-adaba na mbelata akụkọ ihe mere eme yana mmụba nke egwuregwu amụma:
Ngwaahịa aluminom LME agbadala na ton 417575, na-erughị otu izu nke ụbọchị dịnụ, yana ọnụ ahịa ike dị elu na Europe (na ọnụ ahịa gas sitere n'okike na-alaghachi na 35 euro / megawatt hour) na-egbochi ọganihu nke ịmaliteghachi mmepụta.
Ndepụta mmekọrịta ọha na eze nke Shanghai Aluminom belatara site na 6.23% ruo 178597 tọn kwa izu. N'ihi ntọhapụ nke ngwa ụlọ na iwu ụgbọ ala na mpaghara ndịda, ọnụ ahịa ntụpọ ahụ karịrị yuan / ton 200, ụlọ nkwakọba ihe Foshan aghaghị kwụ n'ahịrị maka ihe karịrị ụbọchị 3 iji buru ngwongwo ahụ.
Ⅰ Echiche ịnya ụgbọ ala: Ọchịchọ nkwụghachi azụ vs. ọnụ ahịa dara
1. Ọchịchọ maka ume ọhụrụ na-ebute ụzọ, mpaghara ọdịnala na-enweta mgbake dị n'akụkụ
Mmetụta ikpeazụ nke ngwa ngwa iji wụnye fotovoltaics: N'April, mmepụta nke modul fotovoltaic mụbara site na 17% ọnwa na ọnwa, na ọchịchọ maka okpokolo agba aluminom gbagoro site na 22% kwa afọ. Agbanyeghị, ka ọnụ amụma na-abịaru nso na Mee, ụfọdụ ụlọ ọrụ ebufela iwu tupu oge eruo.
Mmụba ngwa ngwa ụgbọ ala: Ọnụ ego aluminom ejiri n'ụgbọ ala ume ọhụrụ n'otu ụgbọ ala agafeela kilogram 350, na-ebute ọnụego ọrụ nke efere aluminom, warara na ụlọ ọrụ foil rute 82%. Agbanyeghị, n'April, mmụba nke ire ụgbọ ala belatara ruo 12%, yana mmụba nke azụmaahịa na amụma ebelatala.
N'ala ala nke iwu grid ike: State Grid nke abụọ batch nke ultra-high voltaji bidding maka aluminum ihe bụ 143000 ton, na aluminum cable ụlọ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ na zuru ike, na-akwado aluminom pole mmepụta ịnọgide na-enwe afọ ise dị elu.
2. N'akụkụ ọnụ ahịa, enwere oke abụọ: ice na ọkụ
Nrụgide nke oke alumina pụtara ìhè: ịmaliteghachi mmepụta na Mines Shanxi emeela ka ọnụ ahịa bauxite laghachi azụ na $ 80 / ton, ọnụahịa ntụpọ nke alumina dara n'okpuru 2900 yuan / ton, ọnụ ahịa nke aluminom electrolytic agbadala na 16500 yuan / ton, na nkezi uru ụlọ ọrụ abawanyela na 3700 yuan yuan.
Green aluminom premium pụta ìhè: Yunnan hydropower aluminum ton ọnụ ahịa bụ 2000 yuan ala karịa ike thermal, na oke uru oke nke ụlọ ọrụ dị ka Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. karịa nke ụlọ ọrụ nkezi site 5 pasent pasent, accelerate mkpochapụ nke thermal ike mmepụta ike.
Ⅱ Egwuregwu Macro: Iwu 'mma agha ihu abụọ' na-adọwa atụmanya ahịa
1. Amụma uto ụlọ kwụsiri ike na-egbochi ihe egwu mpụta chọrọ
Ihe owuwu etiti nke ọrụ akụrụngwa: National Development and Reform Commission na-ezube ịnye ndepụta nke ọrụ "abụọ" maka afọ dum tupu njedebe nke June, nke a na-atụ anya na ọ ga-eme ka mmụba nke 500000 ton na oriri aluminum.
Atụmanya amụma ego na-adịghị mma: Centrallọ akụ etiti ekwupụtala “mbelata ego achọrọ n'oge yana ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa”, na atụmanya nke enweghị oke mmiri akpaliwo nbata ego n'ahịa ngwa ahịa.
2. Ochie swan ojii ‘na-eyi egwu
Amụma tarifụ US ugboro ugboro: na-amanye tarifu 70%.ngwaahịa aluminomsite na China iji gbochie mbupụ mbupụ ozugbo, na-emetụta ụdọ ụlọ ọrụ na-apụtaghị ìhè dịka ngwa ụlọ na akụkụ ụgbọ ala. Atụmatụ static na-egosi na ikpughe aluminum na US bụ 2.3%.
Ọchịchọ na-adịghị ike na Europe: Ọnụ ọgụgụ nke ndebanye aha ụgbọ ala ọhụrụ na EU na nkeji mbụ belatara site na 1.9% kwa afọ, na mmụba nke mmepụta nke Trimet na Germany kwụsịrị ohere nlọghachi nke aluminom London. Ọnụego mgbanwe Shanghai London ruru 8.3, na mfu mbubata gafere 1000 yuan/ton.
Ⅲ. Agha ego: isi ike dị iche iche na-akawanye njọ, ntụgharị ngalaba na-eme ngwa ngwa
Ogologo oge dị mkpirikpi n'ahịa ahịa: Shanghai Aluminom's isi nkwekọrịta ebelata site na 10393 nza kwa ụbọchị, Yong'an Futures 'ogologo ọnọdụ belatara site 12000 nza, Guotai Jun'an's mkpụmkpụ ọnọdụ mụbara site 1800 nza, na ihe ize ndụ ịkpọasị nke ego ọkụ.
Ahịa ahịa nwere ọdịiche doro anya: mpaghara echiche aluminom bilitere site na 1.05% n'otu ụbọchị, mana China Aluminum Industry dara site na 0.93%, ebe Nanshan Aluminom Industry bilitere site na 5.76% megide omume, na ego etinye uche na hydropower aluminum na ndị isi nhazi nhazi.
Ⅳ Outlook maka ọdịnihu: Pulse Market n'okpuru nguzozi siri ike
Oge dị mkpirikpi (ọnwa 1-2)
Mgbanwe ọnụahịa siri ike: N'ịkwado site na obere ngwa ahịa dị ala na nkwụghachi ụgwọ ezumike, Shanghai Aluminum nwere ike ịnwale ọkwa nrụgide nke 20300 yuan, ma ekwesịrị ịkpachara anya megide nlọghachi nke dollar US kpatara n'ihi igbu oge nke Federal Reserve na-ebelata ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa.
Ịdọ aka ná ntị dị ize ndụ: Mgbanwe mberede na amụma mbupụ bauxite Indonesia na nsogbu nnyefe nke mmachi aluminom Russia kpatara nwere ike ịkpalite ihe ize ndụ nke ịkwakọba mmanye.
Ọkara ruo ogologo oge (ọkara nke abụọ nke 2025)
Nhazi nke nguzozi siri ike: Mmụba ike mmepụta nke aluminom zuru ụwa ọnụ bụ ihe na-erughị 1 nde tọn kwa afọ, na ọchịchọ maka ume ọhụrụ na-abawanye site na 800000 tọn kwa afọ, na-eme ka o sie ike ijikọ ọdịiche ahụ.
Nrụgharị uru nke yinye ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe: Ọnụego ojiji nke aluminom emegharịrị agafeela 85%, yana teknụzụ nkedo anwụ agbakwunyere emeela ka nhazi ahụ nweta nnukwu uru ruo 20%. Ụlọ ọrụ nwere ihe mgbochi nkà na ụzụ ga-eduga n'ọzọ nke uto.
[Ihe data dị n'isiokwu a sitere na ịntanetị, na echiche ndị a bụ maka ntụnye aka naanị na ejighi ya dị ka ntinye ego]
Oge nzipu: Mee-06-2025