Ⅰ Ọgwụgwụ mmepụta: "Mgbasawanye Paradox" nke alumina na electrolytic aluminum
1. Alumina: Ihe nhụsianya nke onye mkpọrọ nke uto dị elu na nnukwu ngwa ahịa
Dabere na data sitere na National Bureau of Statistics, mmepụta alumina nke China ruru nde tọn 7.475 na Machị 2025 (+ 10.3% kwa afọ), yana ngụkọta ngụkọta nke nde tọn 22.596 na nkeji mbụ (+ 12.0% kwa afọ). N'agbanyeghị mgbasawanye nke mmepụta ihe na-aga n'ihu, ahịa ahụ adabawo n'ime usoro ọjọọ nke "na-abawanye mmepụta na-enweghị ụba ego"
Mbufe oke na-abawanye:Ngwaahịa alumina na-elekọta mmadụ n'ime ụlọ agafeela tọn 3.958 nde, yana nrụgide site na mmeghe nke windo mbubata (ọnụahịa FOB Australia dara na $ 373 / ton), ọnụ ahịa ntụpọ dara n'okpuru ọnụ ahịa ego na mpaghara Shanxi (3250 yuan / ton).
Nrụgide ọnụ ahịa iji belata mmepụta:Osisi Alumina dị na Henan, Guizhou na mpaghara ndị ọzọ amalitela mmezi n'ihi mfu ego, na-akpata mbelata ọnwa 2.85% n'ọnwa na ikike ọrụ ruo nde tọn 88.6 kwa afọ na March. Otú ọ dị, ntọhapụ nke 1 nde tọn ikike mmepụta ọhụrụ na Indonesia emeela ka ikike zuru ụwa ọnụ ka njọ.
2. Electrolytic aluminum: "nkịtị itule" n'okpuru mmepụta ike n'uko
Ihe mmepụta aluminum electrolytic na March bụ 3.746 nde tọn (+ 4.4% afọ na afọ), na mkpokọta mmepụta na nkeji mbụ bụ 11.066 nde tọn (+ 3.2% afọ na afọ). N'agbanyeghị mmalite nke mmepụta na mpaghara ndịda ọdịda anyanwụ (ya na Yunnan Hongtai na-ejigide ikike mmepụta ihe nke nde tọn 1.5), atumatu na-amachibidoro elasticity.
Ngbanwe ikike na-achịkwa:Sichuan, Guangxi na mpaghara ndị ọzọ na-amaliteghachi mmepụta tumadi site na ngbanwe ikike, ebe a na-ewepụ ikike mmepụta ochie nke Baotou Aluminom iji mebie mmụba ahụ, na-ebute mmụba nke ntanye ntanye.
Mbelata ngwa ahịa na-eme ngwa ngwa:Na mbido Eprel, ihe ndekọ ọha mmadụ nke aluminom electrolytic belatara ruo tọn 744000 (afọ na-afọ -138000 ton), na ngwaahịa LME dakwasịrị azụ na tọn 459000, na-akwado nkwụsi ike nke ọnụ ahịa aluminom.
Ⅱ N'akụkụ a na-achọ: "mgbawa nhazi" n'etiti egwu ọdịnala na nke na-apụta
1. Omenala ubi: Ugboro abụọ egbu nke architecture na mbupụ
Yinye ụlọ na-aga n'ihu na-adalata:site na Jenụwarị ruo March, ebe a na-ere ahịa nke ụlọ azụmahịa dị na "oyi", ọnụ ọgụgụ ihe owuwu ihe owuwu ụlọ bụ nanị 61%, na mmụba nke mmepụta aluminom (1.3%) dị ntakịrị karịa mmụba nke mmepụta aluminum electrolytic.
Mbupu chere ihu ọgụ tarifu:Tarifụ aluminom US na China esiwo na 104% ruo 145%, na mbupụ aluminom na Jenụwarị na February gbadaa 4.5% kwa afọ. Companieslọ ọrụ na-atụgharị na azụmaahịa ndịda Ebe Ọwụwa Anyanwụ Eshia dịka ebe nchekwa.
2. Ike ọhụrụ na mmepụta ihe dị elu: ọchịchọ maka engines ọhụrụ
Ihe mgbawa uto nkealuminum alloy:Na March, mmepụta nke aluminom alloy ruru 1.655 nde tọn (afọ na afọ + 16.2%), chụpụrụ site n'ịdị arọ nke ike ọhụrụ ike ugbo ala (accelerated magnesium aluminum nnọchi) na ọchịchọ nke fotovoltaic okpokolo agba (na-erite uru na ọhụrụ ụlọ ọkụ eletrik amụma amụma).
Ọganihu na nhazi nke ihe aluminom dị elu: Dongqing Special Materials Nnwale na-eme nke ọma na-emepụta oghere waya ịgbado ọkụ magnesium dị elu, Longi Corporation's aluminum alloy bracket orders mụbara site na 35% kwa afọ, na ntinye mbubata na mpaghara ngwa ngwa dị elu gbalitere.
Ⅲ. Ọnụ na ọnụ ahịa: ndakpọ nke Alumina vs. Uru Mgbasawanye nke Aluminom Electrolytic
1. nwughari mgbagharị ọnụ
Aluminom oxide adaala n'ime 'ọnwụ gburugburu':Ọnụ ahịa ụlọ bauxite agbapụla (gbadata 5% ọnwa n'ọnwa na mpaghara Jin Yu), ọnụ ahịa ihe enyemaka dị ka caustic soda na coal ebelatala, ọnụ ahịa dị arọ nke ụlọ ọrụ agbadala na yuan / ton 3158, mana ọnụ ahịa adaala ngwa ngwa (ọnụahịa ntụpọ Shanxi adaala n'okpuru 3000 yuan / ton).
Mgbasawanye oke uru maka aluminom electrolytic:Ọnụ ego nke alumina agbadala ruo 40% (55% na 2024), uru dị arọ nke ụlọ ọrụ aluminom electrolytic eruola 3700 yuan / ton, yana nnukwu uru nke ụlọ ọrụ Yunnan hydropower uru (dị ka Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.) agafeela 25%.
2. Mmụba dị iche iche ọnụahịa
Alumina oscillation na-ebelata:Mmetụta nke isi mmalite ndị dị ọnụ ala nke mba ofesi (Indonesia na-agbakwụnye 6.5 nde tọn mmepụta ikike itinye ego) na ntọhapụ nke ikike mmepụta ụlọ ọhụrụ (Guangxi si 2 nde ton oru ngo eru zuru mmepụta na April) ebelatawo rebound ohere, na-atụ anya na-arụ ọrụ nso nke abụọ nkeji iri na ise bụ 2800-3200 yuan / ton.
Nnukwu resilience nke aluminom electrolytic:Ọnụ ahịa aluminom LME nọgidere na-adịgide adịgide n'ogo nke 2450-2550 US dollar / ton, na nkwekọrịta isi maka Shanghai aluminum na-akwado site na ntinye ego dị ala na atụmanya amụma (ntụnye ego nke ụlọ "ngwaọrụ ọhụrụ"), yana ebumnuche dị mkpirikpi nke 20500 yuan / ton.
Ⅳ Azụmahịa na amụma mba ụwa: Tarifu 'Grey Rhino' na mgbanwe ndụ ndụ
1. mmetụta yinye nke China US tarifu egwuregwu
Nhazigharị nke yinye ụlọ ọrụ ụgbọ ala:United States amanyela tarifu 25% na ụgbọ ala ebubata, na-amanye ụlọ ọrụ Tesla nke Mexico ka ọ yigharịrị mmepụta. Ọnụ ọgụgụ nke aluminom ndị China na-ebupụ na United States agbadala na 5% (ụlọ ọrụ dịka Wan'an Technology na-eme ka mgbanwe ha na ahịa Europe dịkwuo elu).
Usoro mbufe Rusal:Ka oge nkwụsị nke EU maka Rusal na-eru nso, Rusal na-eme ngwa ngwa nyefe ya n'ụlọ nkwakọba ihe Asia (ibupu 154000 tọn alumina na Russia na March), na LME Ndepụta nke Rusal ebiliwo na 82%.
2. Carbon nnọpụiche na-akwalite nkwalite mmepụta ihe
Emebela mmemme pilot maka asambodo akara akara carbon:Baise electrolytic aluminom carbon labeling asambodo e emejuputa atumatu, na ezubere maka recycled aluminom ike mmepụta a mụbara ruo nde 6 nde kwa afọ (na Alcoa si obere carbon aluminum premium ruru 15%).
Egwuregwu efu ọkụ eletrik:Ọnụ ahịa gas gas nke Europe agbagoro na 35 euro / megawatt hour, na ịmaliteghachi mmepụta na ụlọ ọrụ German nke Trimet Aluminum egbuola oge. Nkwụsi ike nke ike mmiri ụlọ na Yunnan abụrụla ebe ihe egwu na-eweta.
Ⅴ Outlook maka ọdịnihu: egwuregwu abụọ nke njupụta na mgbanwe
1. Alumina: Mbelata mmiri na-efunahụ, na-elekwasị anya na mbelata mmepụta oke
Ọ bụrụ na ọnụahịa ahụ na-aga n'okpuru 3000 yuan / ton, ọnụ ọgụgụ mbelata mmepụta na nkeji nke abụọ nwere ike iru nde tọn 2 / afọ, mana ikike mmepụta ọhụrụ nke Indonesia nwere ike imebi mmetụta nkwekọrịta ọkọnọ.
Atụmatụ atụmatụ: Mkpọchi na-akwụ ụgwọ ihe onwunwe ogologo oge na ọnụ ahịa dị elu ma ṅaa ntị na China Aluminum Corporation (601600. SH), nke nwere ogbunigwe nke ya.
2. Electrolytic aluminum: ohere nhazi n'okpuru obere ngwa ahịa na nkesa amụma
Mmụba kwa afọ na-achọ ume ọhụrụ (ụgbọ ala fotovoltaic+ ọhụrụ ike) bụ 800000 ton 1 nde, na-ewepụ mbelata nke ubi ọdịnala. A na-atụ anya na etiti ọnụahịa aluminom ga-edobe 19500 ruo 21500 yuan / ton.
Oge nzipu: Eprel-22-2025