Moody's wedara echiche ya maka ọkwa kredit nke US ka ọ bụrụ nke na-adịghị mma, na-ebute nchegbu miri emi n'ahịa banyere nkwụghachi nke mgbake akụ na ụba ụwa. Dị ka isi ihe na-anya ngwa ngwa nke ngwa ahịa, mbelata akụ na ụba a na-atụ anya na United States na nrụgide nke ụkọ ego ewepụtala nkwụsị abụọ, na-ebute nrụgide dị mkpirikpi dị mkpirikpi na ahịa ọla kọpa na aluminom. Ọ bụ ezie na mbelata nke ndebanye aha dollar US enyela ụfọdụ nkwado maka ọnụ ahịa, mmụba nke mmegide ndị na-enye ihe na-achọsi ike na ntinye nke enweghị ntụkwasị obi nke amụma emeela ka ọnụ ahịa igwe na-agbanwe nke ukwuu.
Akụkụ chọrọ: Mgbanwe dị n'etiti nkwekọrịta akụrụngwa na mgbochi mbupụ.
Mbelata nke ọkwa kredit US na-emetụta atụmanya itinye ego akụrụngwa, yana ụgwọ ọrụ akụrụngwa $500 nke gọọmentị Trump zubere na mbụ nwere ike ịmanye iwelata azụ, na-ebute mbelata nke ịchọ ọla kọpa maka owuwu site na 120000 ruo 150000 tọn kwa afọ. N'otu oge ahụ, egwuregwu tarifu dị n'etiti China na United States na-aga n'ihu na-arịwanye elu, na asịrị na-ekesa na US na-ezube itinye 25% tarifu na ọla kọpa na aluminom ebubata. Nke a ga-ebuli ọnụ ahịa ụlọ na United States ma gbochie ọchịchọ maka ngwaahịa ndị a na-emepụta dị ka profaịlụ aluminum na ọkpọkọ ọla kọpa. Ọ bụrụ na etinyere ihe mgbochi EU, usoro ahia ahia aluminom zuru ụwa ọnụ nwere ike ihu nhazigharị, yana nke Chinaaluminom na-ebupụna Europe nwere ike chere ụgwọ tarifu ọzọ nke 10%.
Akụkụ ọkọnọ: Egwuregwu dị n'etiti mbelata mmepụta na ịmaliteghachi na-abawanye.
Ọgbaghara n'akụkụ ọkọnọ nke ogbunigwe ọla kọpa na-aga n'ihu, na mmepụta Codelco nke Chile na-agbada site na 18% kwa afọ na nkeji mbụ, na mgbo ọla kọpa nke Peru Las Bambas na-ebelata mmepụta site na 30% n'ihi ngagharị iwe obodo. Otú ọ dị, mmecha nke nrụzi smelter nke ụlọ emeela ka 0.37% na-abawanye na ọnwa na mmepụta ọla kọpa a nụchara anụcha n'April. N'ihe gbasara aluminum electrolytic, ịmaliteghachi ike mmiri na Yunnan akwalitela ikike mmepụta azụ na nde 43.64. Otú ọ dị, nchụpụ ikike mbupụ bauxite nke Guinea welitere nchegbu banyere inye akụrụngwa, na-eme ka ọnụ ahịa alumina na-arị elu site na 12% n'otu ụbọchị na nkwado ọnụ ahịa ịkwaga 17800 yuan / ton. Ọ dị mma ịmara na ngwaahịa ọla kọpa LME abawanyela na tọn 187000, ebe ngwaahịa aluminom na-anọgide na ọkwa dị elu nke 550000 tọn. Ewepụtabeghị nrụgide ngwa ahịa ozugbo nke ọma.
Ọnụ na amụma: Mmetụta nke mgbanwe ike na mgbagha ọnụahịa
Mgbanwe ike zuru ụwa ọnụ na-eme ngwa ngwa ma na-ebelata ọchịchọ maka ọla ụlọ ọrụ ọdịnala ọdịnala. Nkwalite nke usoro tarifụ carbon carbon EU emeela ka 8-10% na-abawanye na ụgwọ ịgbaze aluminum, na mmụba nke aluminom chọrọ maka fotovoltaics nwere ike ibelata site na 25% ruo 15%. Mmụba nke mmepụta mmanụ shale na United States agbadala ụgwọ ọrụ ike, na ọnụ ala etiti ọnụ ahịa aluminom electrolytic ewedarala na $2500/ton. Agbanyeghị, imechi iwu gburugburu ebe obibi nwere ike ịkwalite mmefu ego maka ọrụ owuwu ọhụrụ na mba ofesi. N'ime ụlọ, atumatu maka ụlọ ọrụ igwe eji megharịa emeziwanye ike, n'ebumnuche nke ịbawanye oke ọla kọpa emegharịrị ruo 40% site na 2025, nke nwere ike imegharị ụkpụrụ inye ọla kọpa zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ikpeazụ.
Echiche maka ọdịnihu: Ohere nhazi n'okpuru ịrị elu volatility.
Ọnụ ego ọla kọpa dị mkpirikpi nwere ike ịnwale nkwado na 77500 yuan / ton, yana nkwekọrịta isi nke Shanghai Aluminom na-elekwasị anya na asọmpi akara 20000 yuan. Ọ bụrụ na amụma mkpali akụrụngwa US adaghị atụ anya, ọnụego uto ọla kọpa na nkeji nke atọ nwere ike gbanwee ruo 1.8%, ọnụ ahịa aluminom ga-echekwa ihe ize ndụ nke ịdaba ọnụ ahịa nke $ 2500-2600 kwa ton. Tụnye nlebara anya na akara abụọ bụ isi: 1) ma ngwaahịa ọla kọpa LME adaala n'okpuru tọn 150000; 2) Ọ bụ atụmanya nke Federal Reserve na-ebelata ọmụrụ nwa tupu oge eruo n'ihi data akụ na ụba na-emebi emebi. Akụkụ ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe kwesịrị ịmụrụ anya maka ihe egwu mgbochi dị n'ogo dị elu na-ebute. Ndị na-achụ ego nwere ike ịṅa ntị na ohere ikpe mkpe dị iche iche wee jide windo nke mgbazi ọnụahịa aluminom ọla kọpa.
Mmechi: Anchoring Industrial Logic na ejighị n'aka.
Mbelata nke ratings bụ n'ezie microcosm nke ọdịda nke ọchịchị akụ na ụba ụwa, na ahịa ọla kọpa na aluminom na-enwe mgbanwe mgbanwe ọnụahịa site na "nkwụsị ike chọrọ" gaa na "ọnụahịa ọnụ ahịa". Ndị na-achụ ego kwesịrị ịpụ na ọnyà mgbanwe dị mkpụmkpụ, na-elekwasị anya n'usoro ogologo oge nke mgbanwe ume na nhazigharị usoro mmepụta ihe, na ijide ohere ịzụ ahịa nke ihe mgbagwoju anya na-eweta na mgbanwe mgbanwe.
Oge nzipu: Mee-23-2025